T HE 2022 NBA DRAFT IS FINALLY HERE, or maybe already here, considering the NBA Finals ended like 12 minutes ago. The NBA cycle never stops, and we’ll barely even have time to digest the draft before free agency and Trade SZN are upon us in July. But today, it’s Christmas.

I was asked on a podcast this week why I refer to today as Christmas (admittedly, there are other sports Christmases: March Madness opening weekend, NFL Draft, NFL opening Sunday, Duke Day, etc) and it’s a pretty easy answer. Today, the eternal NBA season of yesterday goes away and we all start fresh at 0–0, and every team gets to open a new gift or two under the NBA Draftmas tree. There will be trades and Woj bombs and shockers, but everyone gets a present. The Yankee-est of Yankee swaps.

Normally I spend the last couple weeks writing 75,000 words of in-depth scouting profiles, long-form breakdowns, and position-by-position deep dives. Alas, I do this full time now at Action Network and the NBA playoffs were long and busy, so instead we’re doing this all-in-one and making this a one-stop-shop with everything you need on Draft Day 2022.

The upside means everything is right here in one place. The downside means 10k words instead of 75k. Fine, maybe that’s upside too, but it means I got to gush a little less about the guys I love, and it also means I had to be pretty dismissive of the guys I don’t like as much just to keep it moving. I’ve watched hundreds of hours of games on these guys, and there’s nuance to everything. No player should be summed up in one paragraph, but that’s life.

I’m hoping this serves as an archive of where I was at on these guys on draft day, and for you dear reader, I’m hoping you use it however you like. Read it all before the draft, skim through as the picks are made to learn about the players, check back in three years and mock me everywhere I went wrong. Dealer’s choice, really! It’s also less edited than I’d prefer — more a blog than a finished product. Life is busy.

I’ve written extensively in the past about the methodology behind the madness if you want to know how I rank and process everything. I may also come back later to add a few more rankings and tidbits at the bottom here if you circle back. We’ll start with rankings and brief profiles of each player by position at the top, and then you’ll find my final Big Board at the bottom.

Today it’s Chet Holmgren’s world, and the rest of us are just living in it.

We’ve had a handful of exciting lead handlers in every draft for years, but this is an incredibly disappointing set of PGs in this year’s class. If your team needs a point guard, sorry, you’re probably not addressing that need in the draft…

Is Ivey even a point guard? No, not really, but he’s the closest thing we’ve got in this draft to a lead handler and he’ll be best with the ball in his hands, but the truth is he’s more of a combo guard.

I wrote a long profile on Ivey, so you can read more there. Ivey is an incredibly explosive athlete, and he had at least one play or two every game that no one else in college can make. He accelerates like he’s been fired out of a cannon, and he has a long slithery step that helps him get downhill attacking the rim. Purdue had two pro caliber bigs and played through them, so Ivey should benefit from more spacing and more time on the ball in the NBA.

He doesn’t pop as a passer though, which is why he’s not really a point guard, and his shot is a bit flat and inconsistent. Since he’ll need to play off the ball, that shot is a big swing factor. I like Ivey but don’t love him. He’s not quite as athletic as the Ja Morant comp you see a lot of, and I see him more like a Tyrese Maxey type who may be best as a complementary player, benefiting from the space and playing off another star or two.

It says more about this crappy PG class than it does about Ivey that he’s so far ahead of the rest of the class. This tier is empty.

I badly want to love Chandler, a Chris Paul clone with outstanding feel and IQ, good wiggle, crafty finishing, and elite fundamentals. Chandler’s an obvious leader with great touch near the basket, and he’s incredibly comfortable in the pick and roll for his age, probing the defense and making good decisions. Chandler studied under CP3 and you see it throughout his game.

The problem is he’s also CP3’s size at 6-foot flat, and there’s only one CP3 for a reason. The size really limits Chandler, and I constantly noticed his height holding him back. He also lacks strength, which limits his range, and his shot is unimpressive. The margin of error is so small at this size. Chandler tries hard in defense and his plus wingspan and quick hands give him a chance on that end, but he’s about four inches short of being top 10 on my board.

Terry’s upside is limited because he’s just not a shooter or scorer, but he can be a good connective tissue glue guy on a team with a big wing lead handler. Terry just looks fun to play with. He’s really big for a point guard and uses his length well, so he should be able to guard 1 to 3, and he’s a nice secondary creator who makes quick decisions.

Terry needs to fill out his frame and continue to improve as a shooter, but he could be a Delon Wright or Gary Payton II type as a defensive role player.

There’s almost always a veteran PG who gets a bit underdrafted at the top of the 2nd and steps immediately into a sixth man role running the offense — think Ayo Dosunmu, Jalen Brunson, Monte Morris, Devonte’ Graham.

Nembhard is the obvious pick this year. He spent two years running an high-functioning efficient Gonzaga offense, making quick decisions, navigating the pick and roll, and passing teammates open. He was the engine that got a fast team running and a constant bellwether of team success, and he’s improved as a shooter over his career. He’s going to be a pro a long time.

Montero is jitterbug quick and gets downhill well attacking the rim. I was impressed with him at Hoop Summit but he had a tough year, and his small size at 6'1 really limits him. Mostly, he’s just been really inconsistent. Some days he’s a scorer, others he’s pass first, and others he’s sort of neither. He doesn’t have great burst or athleticism, nor an elite handle, and that can be a death knell for guys his size.

Davison is billed as this huge explosive athlete, and he certainly has explosive power dunks, but I was really underwhelmed with the burst and inability to turn the corner on guys. Davison has a slow, low shot release with poor results, and he doesn’t get all the way to the rim and doesn’t finish well there. He’s more quick than fast and is another small PG at 6'1. This was supposed to be a lottery guy and I just never saw it.

SG is my least valuable position, since I basically define it as guys who aren’t big enough to play and defend like a SF but who also aren’t good enough on the ball to play PG. It’s like a small wing tweener position and the one position I’d spend the least capital on. It’s interesting that this is the deepest position in this draft by far — and probably a bit damning of the draft class as a whole too…

I tuned in to a bunch of G League games this year to watch a stud SG prospect, but that ended up being Daniels instead of Jaden Hardy. This dude just checks all of my boxes. He’s big and long and uses his size well on the glass and especially on defense, and his natural feel for the game leaps off the page.

Daniels is a winner. He’s constantly in the right spot on both ends and makes quick decisions, and he’s a really good passer and playmaker. I love his versatility. Daniels effectively ran point for the Ignite but can play PG, SG, or SF depending on team need, and he’ll defend all three too. Think something like what Shaun Livingston became or maybe a Shane Battier type.

The shot is the big question. He hit only 26% of his 3s and the form is slow and needs work. But shooting is one of the most learnable skills, and Dyson just makes winning plays. He always popped, and it’s no surprise that he was the one G League guy who stood out at All Star Weekend. He could’ve walked into any Conference Finals team and made an immediate winning impact.

Mathurin is so smooth and silky. He just looks like a star, and he immediately pops as an NBA talent with the swagger and skill. He’s an easy scorer, and everything just looks so natural for him, with his points piling up in the flow of the game.

Benn Mathurin has a sweet shot and should be a dangerous movement shooter, and he’s a creative 3-level scorer and looks like he has some latent passing and creation ability potential he wasn’t asked to do much of in Arizona’s whirring motion offense. He also really tries on defense and is a rare version of this microwave scoring SG who looks like he can be at least neutral or good on that end too.

Think something like Lou Williams, but with a sweeter shot and a more rounded game. A walking bucket. This is one of my least favorite archetypes, but Benn Mathurin is a really good version of an archetype that NBA teams covet, even if I don’t, and one that gets more valuable when bucket getters step up in the playoffs.

I was late to Branham, but that’s just about right since Malaki was a late bloomer himself, breaking out with a huge back half of the season. He was worth the wait.

Branham reminds me of a slightly smaller Khris Middleton or Jaylen Brown. He has an awesome mid-range pull-up jumper it seems like he can always get to, and he’s patient with his dribble and keeps the defender on his hip to create space. His confident shot should extend to 3-point range soon enough, and he can really handle in the pick and roll and seems to have some real creation ability on the wing, both for himself and for others.

You saw the value of Brown and Middleton in the playoffs. Teams need guys who can get their own shot when the offense tightens up. Branham is another potential 16 gamer if his improvement arc continues since he just turned 19, and he’s a terrific finisher too. The handle and decision making still need work (hi Jaylen), and the defense definitely needs a lot of work too, but his long frame and feel for the game make me confident he’ll get there in time.

Sharpe is complete guesswork since he didn’t play at UK or at all last year. He’s a total unknown, but the potential is certainly there and I wrote about him more at Action Network. Sharpe made the leap from just another prospect to #1 in his class last July, then reclassified up a year before basically disappearing, so you wonder how far he’s come in the year since.

Sharpe has a reported 49-inch vertical and a big frame, and he’s an explosive athlete with a good looking shot. The question is, well, whether he can actually play basketball. This is not an archetype I love, and that means lots of unknown question marks on shot selection, motor, defense, feel, and intangibles. We truly just don’t know.

In the end, Sharpe is too talented to leave out of my lottery, but the poor recent history of mystery guys who haven’t played plus the bad archetype mean Sharpe is a guy I’m willing to miss on.

A lot of folks really love Davis, and I don’t not like him but… I’m just not all that excited. He’s a rounded player with good feel for the game, and he’s a clear leader who fights hard on every possession and plays really good defense. The offense is patient with good decision making, and he’s another guy whose game seems well-suited for a half-court setting.

So what’s missing? The shooting numbers leave me cold, both from 3 and at the rim, and so does the athletic profile. Davis just isn’t super explosive, so he doesn’t have the burst to turn the corner and struggled to get to his spot against more athletic defenders. I liken Davis to someone like Austin Rivers or Josh Hart. I see a useful 10-year career but not someone I can’t miss out on.

I’m not totally sure what TyTy is. He’s small like a point guard but has good length he uses well on defense, and weirdly enough it’s the defense I kept consistently noticing that felt like Washington’s calling card. On offense he has a long snaky drive and a very comfortable pull-up jumper and floater, but they almost feel too comfortable — like he’s settling because he doesn’t quite have the burst or athletic ability to get all the way to the rim.

I watched a ton of TyTy but still don’t totally know what I think. Kentucky guys are notoriously tough to evaluate because they tend to get pigeonholed into a role, but I also found myself wondering sometimes if I’d have even really noticed Washington if not for the pedigree. The shot profile isn’t great, and he plays more like a 3-and-D wing sometimes than the star PG he was supposed to be, but I’ve learned to give UK guys the benefit of the doubt.

Abgaji, on the other hand, is a known commodity. He played four years at Kansas and got better every year and finished with a Jayhawks national championship. He’s a knockdown 3-point shooter with an NBA-ready body, and he’s a surprising athlete with good length and perimeter defense. He’ll walk into any NBA rotation as a ready-made 3-and-D guy.

That makes Agbaji an easy first round pick and a great later pick for teams already in the playoffs, but I’m a bit concerned that his age (22) and underwhelming court awareness and shooting history before this year leave a distinct lack of upside beyond that.

I had Ellis a bit higher for much of the year thinking he was a nice ready-made 3-and-D wing. He’s a pesky defender who plays with frenetic energy like Corey Brewer, and he’s a terrific shooter who can really stroke the three. I like the shot form, the quick hands, and the nice touch, and he’s a super annoying defender in all the best ways.

But the more I watched, the less enthusiastic I got. Ellis is a pesky on-ball defender but gets lost in space in team defense and often gives up something easy with over aggression. He’s also really not a guy who can have the ball in his hands, with a poor dribble and really rough decisions at times. Add in the fact that he’s 22 and measured much smaller than I thought he played and he probably tops out as a rotation SG rather than the starting SF I was hoping for.

Lee was one of my favorite players to watch because he is a Klay Thompson clone with an absolute fire jumper. Lee has the best 3-pointer in the draft as far as I’m concerned, and he makes good decisions with the ball and plays with intelligence and feel.

The problem is that Lee just isn’t athletic enough. He’ll be a real minus athletically in the NBA and at Davidson, that hurt him defensively and it meant that he struggles to get open sprinting off screens and was unable to get to his shots against athletic defenders. I’m definitely rooting for Lee, since he would be only the second Korean-born player drafted in the NBA.

Christie is meant to be a plug-and-play 3-and-D wing. That’s the role he played at MSU, and I typically like guys already playing their expected role. The problem is that Christie wasn’t super impressive. His shooting efficiency was pretty rough, and he just didn’t make much of a consistent impact.

I see the length and pesky defense enough, but the offensive package is pretty raw. Christie feels like an eventual rotation guy but I think he should’ve stayed another year at MSU and developed more in a bigger role.

Hardy was supposed to be a top-5 pick, but he had a rough year in the G League and didn’t show good development. He’s sophomore age, which makes the lack of feel and shot selection a bit tougher to swallow, and he’s a super inefficient volume scorer (read: chucker) who dribbles the life out of the ball and lacks athletic explosion and separation. Hardy looks like an NBA player with an advanced handle and confident jumper, but he literally hit 35% of his shots this season. Looks can be deceiving. This is just the exact sort of archetype I don’t like anyway, so I don’t mind missing if I’m wrong.

Keels plays like he thinks he’s the best player on the court, and that was a problem since he was usually the worst player in Duke’s lineup. I like Keels when he gets downhill attacking the rim, and he’s a terrific finisher and still young and developing. I don’t buy the athleticism or feel though, and he’s really inconsistent and super small for a wing, all of which really limit upside.

Wesley has been one of the hot rising names, and I just don’t get it. His shooting stroke is rough and I’m not at all impressed with his feel for the game. He sort of floats without the ball and makes slow reads with it, and he’s a slow mover who doesn’t accelerate well. The handle is loose too. I like Wesley as a driver and he has an explosive first step and good body control, but I have no idea what else I’m missing here that makes him a first rounder.

You remember Juzang from knocking down a billion mid-range pull-up jumpers on last year’s Cinderella Final Four run, and that’s a skill that will always be useful in the NBA, especially with his size. It was a rough year and Juzang’s handle and defense leave something to be desired, so maybe that March run was as good as it gets.

I don’t buy the Braun hype. He defends hard and is a nice play finisher who runs hard in transition, but I don’t see enough skill. The shot is flat and he has super short arms that limit his defensive upside. I think he’s benefiting from the national title buzz, cuz I dunno why he’s a fringe first otherwise.

Rollins was one of the Combine buzz guys and I hadn’t seen him before that. He’s a nice 3-level scorer with a good pull-up, and he navigates pick and roll well. He’s also got a huge wingspan and plays smart team D. The problem is the lack of athletic burst combined with the iffy shot. If Rollins doesn’t stand out athletically in the MAC, how will he cut it in the NBA?

Procida looks like a draft-and-stash for a couple years, though he’s already 20. He has a nice shot and passing equity, and I like the dribble pull-up, but his body/athletic profile look limiting and I’m not sure the passing will be worth it with his loose handle and poor finishing. Maybe in a few years.

I expected Mohammed to stay in school. I love the body and athletic profile but the game is very raw. He has slow reactions and little feel for spacing, and I don’t like the handle or the shot. If the skills develop, I like the body.

It’s a wings league in 2022 so this is the most valuable position in the draft. These are the guys I most fall in love with, the projects I’m willing to give by far the most benefit of the doubt. Every team needs good wings because you can play 2, 3, even 4 at once, and if often makes teams even more versatile and difficult to score on or defend. I’m looking for length, athleticism, and potential at the top…

Many people have tabbed Jaden Ivey as the top guy in the draft outside the three bigs. I’m going with A.J. Griffin.

Griffin is top wing in this class by a decent margin in my books. He is a super elite shooter who made nearly 50% of his 3s this year, and he has remarkably consistent footwork and form with a deep jumper that looks center pin every time. The shot is great off the catch or off movement, and he can also dribble pull-up and get his own shot. I see a bigger Devin Booker, or a Jimmy Butler who isn’t afraid to shoot. I think he’s the best shot maker in the class.

People knock Griffin for his lack of explosion, and it’s true that the first step isn’t great, but I’m not sure that’s his game. He’s patient and quick, smooth on the ball, and I think there’s some real pick and roll navigation and creation upside that wasn’t tapped into at Duke because that’s a thing that happens with a lot of Duke and UK freshmen on loaded teams. Griffin plays physical, absorbing contact well with a powerful two-foot leap. He was not very good defensively this year but has a lot of potential on that end as he learns.

The biggest question is the injury history. That took away a couple high school years and reared its head again this year, to the point that Griffin barely even played in non-conference. There were other times when he blended in a bit too much — I’m not sure if that’s because he’s passive or because Duke shoehorned its offense so much through Banchero and Keels, but I suspect the latter. Maybe the injury is debilitating long term, or maybe Griffin was still working his way back this year and some of that explosion will return.

If the health checks out, Griffin is an NBA-ready knockdown shooter on the wing, the sort of guy who can help all 30 teams, and he’s not even 19 yet. I won’t be surprised if he ends up more valuable than at least one of the three big guys going at the top of the draft.

It took me a long time to get to Dieng, but I fell hard once I got there and he is now my favorite upside shot in the entire draft. This draft is really light on true high-end upside guys after that top three. This is still a star-driven league, and I’d rather strike out shooting for the stars than end up with good rotation guys. Ousmane Dieng has real potential to be a star.

The first part of Dieng’s season with the New Zealand Breakers was an abject disaster. He was overwhelmed physically and shot 27% from the field his first 11 games and fell off everyone’s radar. But he was a wonder toward the end of the season, leaping to 48% FG the final 11 games and looking like the international star we didn’t think existed in this draft.

Dieng is reportedly 6'10 and growing with a 7-foot-plus wingspan, and he just turned 19. He shows remarkable processing speed at his age, with serious creation upside and really advanced pick and roll handling. Dieng could be one of those coveted big lead handlers on the wing every NBA team wants. He has a smooth handle and really advanced footwork on his shot. His length also gives him big potential defensively. He’s already a playmaker and should be able to defend three or four positions.

It’s all going to take some time. Dieng isn’t an elite athlete, and he’s got a pretty lean frame that will need a couple years of NBA strength training to help him combat physically at the highest level. The physicality is what holds him back in almost all of his shortcomings, and he also needs to improve the jumper or learn how to get to the rim better.

The encouraging thing is how far Dieng already came just this year as a raw developmental project. With his age and length and the advanced skill set that’s already there, in a draft this light on serious high-end talent, I just kept moving Ousmane further and further up my board. He’s my pick to be that guy we all look back on in five years and shake our heads, wondering how he ever went that late.

Kendall Brown is extremely my type, for better and for worse. A site I use for athleticism and body comps gave me this list for Brown: Zhaire Smith, Kai Jones, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Aaron Gordon, and Moussa Diabate. I feel seen. This is basically a list of all of my favorite draft crushes over the last decade — super long, lanky, out of this universe athletes who… might also occasionally flash some basketball skills. I fall hard for these guys, even though you barely know a few of them because they often bust hard too.

So that’s Kendall Brown. He’s 6'6 with a near 7-foot wingspan, a long, smooth, fluid athlete with jolting athleticism and a nuclear leap. Brown is a 99.99 percentile athlete, and he has enormous defensive potential. He’s switchy and versatile and has quick hands and pressures the ball, and most importantly he pre-acts instead of reacting, getting to spots early.

The natural IQ isn’t as obvious on offense, but you see it in Brown’s great cutting ability and his comfort handling. He makes quick decisions (not always the right one), and the ball doesn’t stick. All of this is why Brown was a top 10 pick early this season. That was before he basically melted into Baylor’s background the second half of the season and fell off the radar.

That’s because Brown doesn’t really play offense yet. The shot isn’t great and his lack of confidence is evident in the low volume and invisible impact he has on that side of the ball. He just looks lost and confused at times, and I don’t think Baylor’s coaching staff did him any favors. Maybe he never really finds that, like Zhaire or others on that list above. But to me, Kendall Brown is a blank slate 3-and-D developmental project, and the package is so good that I trust giving a high-end outcome if put into the right situation.

The first time I saw Pat Baldwin Jr. this year I thought to myself, holy cow, this dude is Horizon League Kevin Durant. I still haven’t decided yet if that was a compliment or a diss.

Baldwin is big and long with a wide frame, and that shot form and jumper are wet. He looks like a walking bucket, a long lean combo forward frame like KD and a guy who should be able to get to his dangerous jumper anytime he wants it. We’ve seen that profile work at the highest levels.

The only problem is that it didn’t work, even in the Horizon League. Baldwin was horrendous. He posted awful numbers and couldn’t hit a shot, then got hurt and missed most of the season, and his slight frame didn’t pop even against mid majors. There are real questions about his defense, his versatility, and his ability to create, and he might be more of a shooter than a scorer.

Still, everyone loves a good PBJ and this dude was a top 10 prospect. Maybe he just had a really bad year and a rough injury? I’m willing to give the profile a shot after the lottery, and I wonder if Baldwin could be a discount version of Jabari Smith.

I watched a ton of Duke film this year for Banchero and Griffin, and along the way I saw a whole lot of good stuff from Wendell Moore. Moore is a junior, so I’ve seen a lot of him the last couple years too, and it’s shocking how far he’s come. Most importantly, his polish and feel for the game are vastly improved.

Moore’s shooting has come a long ways with a 41% 3 this year and excellent free throw shooting. Add all that to terrific ball hawking defense and great functional athleticism, and he looks like a ready-made 3-and-D NBA wing who’s already been playing his exact role in college. Importantly, he’s young for a junior (not even 21 yet) and still improving. His connective passing was a big improvement this year too. Looks like an easy rotation guy.

Williams was the big Combine winner. He’s getting the 3-and-D label, though I think his offense is a bit better than that typical role and his defense not quite as good as teams hope. The D is inconsistent and he lacks lateral quickness to be a lock-down switchy defender, though his insane wingspan certainly helps.

He uses that size well on both ends, and he has a great feel for the game. Williams is comfortable with the ball and makes really nice decisions and passes, so he could have some secondary creation upside. I’m not quite as sold on the 3 or the D, but there’s enough paths to goodness that he’s worth a look.

MarJon is another guy I noticed tuning in to watch others. The thing you notice first about Beauchamp is just how long he is. He’s big and athletic, and the shot looks good, so he’s another 3-and-D swing.

The overall package isn’t as exciting to me. He’ll turn 22 by the time the season starts and his development seems more like a 19-year-old, with questionable feel, a weak handle, rough shooting numbers, and not the greatest finishing. All of those things can improve, but it’s a bit worrisome that they haven’t yet at his age

You know the phrase “No offense, but…?” I think it’s talking about Watson. I really want to love him, even though I have no idea what he is. A guard? A wing? A basketball player? Hard to say. UCLA didn’t know either, so Watson barely even saw the court despite coming in as a high-profile freshman.

Watson is as long as a summer day and he can really pressure the ball, so he has elite defensive potential. But there’s basically zero offense right now, to the point that he literally scored three baskets in 82 minutes across eight games in February. He can’t shoot and is super raw, so he’s a long ways away, but I’ll take a chance on the length and defense.

Like Watson, Houstan was another potential lottery pick freshman who didn’t do much this year. He comes with pedigree and size, and he has a sweet looking shot and is supposed to be a 3-and-D guy. But he too looks a long ways away. He looked lost out there for Michigan most of the time. He badly lacks strength and confidence and had zero impact on the game most of the time, and I’m shocked he didn’t stay another year in school. Again, you’re taking a shot on the size and shooting profile.

Minott caught my attention in brief stints when I was watching Jalen Duren tape. He’s hyper athletic and can leap out of the gym, and he has terrific touch finishing around the rim. The shot is nowhere to be found though, and his slight frame gives him a bit less defensive potential than I’d have hoped, more the size of a SF than a PF who can play up. Another super raw upside swing.

Are you sensing a pattern? Lewis is another huge wingspan guy with great athletic explosion. I liked him best attacking with the ball, but mostly I just see a ton of athleticism without much polish to his game yet. Lewis’s somewhat disengaged defensive effort was the most discouraging part. He’ll need to stand out on that end with his length and athletic ability to stick.

McGowans is sort of the inverse of the guys above him. He’s a super sweet shooter with a great jumper, though the 3-point % is disappointing. I worry that McGowans might be more of a shooter than a scorer. He measured poorly and is close to a SG than a PF, and he’s lean and doesn’t pop athletically and feels like he plays small. The offensive profile is clear, but I’m not sure the body and defense will keep him on the court long enough for it to matter.

I didn’t see a ton of Seabron, but that’s mostly because I didn’t feel like I needed to. He’s certainly athletic enough but is a pretty rough shooter and doesn’t feel polished enough as a 22-year-old for me to give him attention. I would’ve far rather his teammate Terquavion Smith stayed in the draft.

You know when you Create a Player on 2K and just make goofy body types? You’ve created David Roddy. That boy thicc. He’s stocky and slow and sort of plays like a center playing guard. The numbers were certainly really good, but I don’t see any way his body or athletic profile hold up in the NBA at 6'5 with a game that needs him to play big. Roddy has great feel and IQ, and he really gets after it attacking the rim, but I just don’t buy it at the highest level. Looks like a dude that could get BUCKETS at the Y though.

PF used to be something like the big man version of SG — a tweener position for guys not big enough to defend like centers but not quick or skilled enough to play on the wing. That made it a less valuable position, by definition. But as wings and teams get bigger, we’re starting to see fours that are actually a little bit of both, who excel precisely because they can play up or down a bit.

Versatility reigns in the modern NBA, and this year’s power forwards might be the most interesting position group. That starts with the toughest decision on my draft board, choosing between the two guys at the top.

I’ve been all over the place on Jabari Smith. Early in the season, like many other evaluators who first meet Jabari, I fell in love and I fell hard. Smith is love at first sight. Here’s a (then) 18-year-old 6'10 dude pulling up and hitting sweet, unguardable jumpers over everyone he sees, just a complete walking bucket, about the closest thing we’ve seen to Kevin Durant. As January ended, I thought the race at #1 was totally over and tweeted this:

Then the rest of the season happened. I gave Jabari a break awhile because I was so sure he was locked in at #1, and when I came back, I started to notice the flaws. He slipped a little, first even with Chet Holmgren and then behind him. And then while I took another break to focus on NBA playoffs, I started to think about all the flaws and shortcomings and came very close to dropping Jabari even further, below Paolo Banchero.

In the end, I settled right in the middle, and I feel good about it. I wrote long profiles at Action Network about both Jabari and Paolo so you can read more specifics about each player there. Here I want to focus on the decision to keep Smith above Banchero.

Both of these guys are immense offensive talents. Smith can get his own shot anytime he wants, and we’re reminded every playoffs just how valuable that skill is against increasingly difficult defenses. He’s smooth with a really impressive handle for his age and he has good footwork on the jumper and is already good at drawing fouls on them. And above all else, that jump shot is just WET and so tantalizing.

Where I started to lose faith in Smith is that his offense is a bit one note right now. That jumper is SO good, but he settles too easily for it and looks a bit too comfortable on the perimeter. He plays small at times, more like a SF, and he hasn’t been good or consistent attacking the rim or finishing there. By the numbers, he’s been downright bad at that. He’s also more of a reactive passer with mostly simple reads. He doesn’t often go left and his handle is smooth but predictable. And because Auburn’s guards sucked, he sometimes struggled to make a big imprint on the game. He’s more of an adder than a multiplier. Right now, he doesn’t do much to make his teammates better.

It’s important to note the defense, which goes a bit overlooked on these two. Banchero isn’t going to be a good defender. I think Smith might be. He plays engaged in a good stance on that end already and is good laterally, so he looks switchable on a defense that can play five-out in vital minutes with his shooting. Smith has good closing speed and nice hand placement and timing on blocks, and I like that he communicates so well on D even at a young age.

My belief in Jabari faltered because I reduced him to what he is right now. And what he is right now is a relatively one-note player, effectively a tall shooting guard with a jumper to die for. Right now, there’s little question that Banchero is the better player or bigger impact guy.

But right now isn’t all that important.

Jabari is a full year younger, and it’s the many avenues to high value that I’m betting on. Smith’s handle and feel offensively portend creation ability and more than just a good shooter like Klay or MPJ. He’s not a good finisher right now or great on the glass, but he should improve in both areas as he ages and adds NBA muscle. He can add immense value to his game if the defense is good or even above average. And the shot can become even more lethal, and will never be guardable. Literally all 30 NBA teams at all times can add, start, and feature a 6'10 dude who can defend and knock down shots. All of them.

For a minute, I talked myself into Smith being a possible bust because he’s just a tall jump shot. But when you focus on what Jabari can one day become and how that fits into the modern NBA, it’s clear why he has to rank ahead of Paolo — and why he ultimately looks like he’ll be the #1 pick in the draft.

So where does that leave us with Paolo? I was asked on VSiN yesterday who the most NBA-ready player is, and it’s almost unquestionably Banchero. The dude is a man-child, and he’s physically ready to step in right now and play with the big boys. He’s my Rookie of the Year favorite for next season because he’s ready now and will post big points, rebounds, and assist numbers.

Banchero is really talented and already very good. He stood out so much physically, a marvel as a freshman, and his advanced skill at his age and size is off the charts. Banchero has a super gifted handle complete with crossover, Euro, step-back, and more. He’s a grab-and-go menace, absolutely lethal in transition, the Jalen Johnson that was promised. The passing and creation upside is what’s most exciting. Creation is maybe the single most coveted NBA skill, and Paolo can find his own shot and shows serious passing acumen to create for others. He straight up destroyed the Syracuse zone and is amazing as a short roll passer. And though the shot results were not great, he’s got a comfortable elbow jumper and can hit the 3. The whole package.

Banchero wasn’t efficient, though. Is that because Duke was just letting him explore the studio space, or is it because the price of Paolo creation is also some sloppy turnovers and bad missed shots? It’s also a bit concerning that Banchero relied so much on his physical dominance, because he didn’t stand out as much against teams like UNC and Virginia who packed it in defensively and could hang physically. The shot results were not great, and the range seems to die at the college arc for now.

I’m skeptical Banchero will ever be a good defender. He’s inconsistent at best right now and is out of position far too often. He offers little interior defense and closes out too hard on the perimeter, and Duke made its overall defense worse trying to hide Paolo in a zone. I worry that Banchero might have played in a nearly perfect college situation — with an elite defensive center protecting him and spacing the court vertically, a knockdown wing spacing the court horizontally, and a terrific point-of-attack defender stopping opponents from isolating him. He won’t have that protection in the NBA.

And this is where it comes back to avenues for value and fit in the NBA.

Look, there’s little question Banchero fits. Any basketball team on earth can use a 6'10 dude who can dribble, pass, shoot, and create on his own and elevate his teammates as the hub of an offense. The question is just how good a team can be built around that. I kept seeing Julius Randle as I watched, or late-career Blake Griffin or maybe Carmelo Anthony. Those guys were All-Stars — but they also played on capped-out teams that didn’t make deep playoff runs because they were good-not-great offenses.

I worry that Paolo’s best value is with the ball in his hands as that hub, creating shots both for himself and for others… but that he’s not an elite enough shot maker or creator for that to lead to a high-end offense. Fine, pair Banchero with a lead handler or scorer, everyone needs help — but once you take the ball out of Paolo’s hands and remember he’s not going to defend and doesn’t necessarily stretch the court, he suddenly becomes a lot of valuable.

And that’s the problem. It’s a team building issue. I think Banchero likely makes some All-Star games and is eventually widely considered one of the league’s top players as an All-NBA guy, but I’m not sure how he fits onto a team that plays in the Conference Finals. You need a Mark Williams protecting the rim, you need an A.J. Griffin on the wing, you need good scoring guards who can take some of the offensive load. These are tough pieces to find — and you still need a high-end outcome for Banchero too.

Listen, I’m not exactly betting against Paolo Banchero. He’s third on my overall big board and in my second tier with Jabari Smith. It’s pretty darn good to be top-3 at anything. But in the end, I just prefer Jabari and Chet a little more because I far prefer the 5-man team I see those two playing on.

Everyone has been looking for the next Draymond Green for the better part of a decade, but Green might be about as close as it comes. Add in the mean streak and frequent hair dye and he might actually be a cross between Draymond and Dennis Rodman.

It all starts with the defense, and I could write a thousand words just on that. Sochan is a defensive linchpin. He’s strong and stout and can defend the post — the one guy all March who limited Armando Bacot — but also quick enough to hang on the perimeter and switch. Sochan can defend in space, and he has incredible feel on that end, making smart rotations and constantly organizing and communicating with his teammates even as an 18-year-old all season. He’s an absolute pest on the ball, and he can really mirror defensively. He has all the tools and absolutely will play small ball 5 in the NBA.

He’s got a similar offensive game to Draymond too. Sochan can really handle and pass. He loves to attack and get downhill toward the rim, and he’s comfortable handling the ball and even ran point at times (again, as a freshman small ball center for a 1-seed). His feel for the game pops on offense too, and it’s clear Baylor’s staff trusted Sochan in the biggest moments. They also trusted him to be the leader of their team, their heart and soul. Sochan is a team culture setter.

Of course, like Draymond, there’s plenty that needs work. The shot is not good. He was under 60% from the line and under 30% on 3s, and that’ll have to get better to have any chance. He’s slightly smaller than Green, and every inch counts for small ball bigs. Sochan’s decision-making and timing is a bit off at times, but I can forgive that for a player this young.

But my biggest fear was the many times he seemed out of position on defense and felt a half step slow, even reactionary. For a guy who lacks some lateral speed and acceleration, that will be a death kneel to the rest of his game. All the Draymond comparisons are great, but there’s a reason we only have one of him so far. Still, this is a dude some fan base is about to fall deeply in love with… and someone the other 29 teams’ fans will absolutely hate.

As far as I can tell, I’m higher on Moussa Diabate than anyone on the planet. I just love this dude, and he reminds me of Pascal Siakam with his body, ability, and upside.

For starters, Diabate has absolutely filthy defensive ability. He’s a great communicator and organizer on that end, moves well laterally, and has exquisite mirroring ability. He’s also super long with a big wingspan, the sort of super valuable big who can switch onto guards and be long enough and fast enough to contain them. There’s rim protection too, along with a relentless motor, though there were fouls aplenty along the way.

The offense is more incomplete, but there’s plenty to like. Diabate has a good first step and a nice grab and go ability with a long stride, and I really like his touch around the rim. I also love what I see without the ball. Diabate has upside as a roll man and play finisher, and he can be a lob threat. He moves well without the ball and, though he doesn’t score a ton, found easy buckets in space for most of his points, no small fit with Michigan’s cramped spacing.

Diabate is raw. He may not hit, and it’ll take some time to get there even if he does. But I can’t get over the upside of what he might become, and I really can’t believe no one else seems to see it either.

I wrote about Keegan at Action Network, and I’ve been railing against him as a top-5 pick. He’s an older prospect who will turn 22 in August, and he’s more of a sure thing, which also means he likely has less upside to explore. But that doesn’t mean he’s a bad pick — just maybe not a top-5 guy.

Murray is an incredibly efficient and natural scorer who gets his points in any variety of ways within the flow of the game. He’s good in the post, comfortable facing up, can put the ball on the floor, and moves well off the ball to put himself consistently into easy scoring positions. Murray’s feel and fluidity offensively are terrific, and he’s the sort of guy that might’ve slipped outside the lottery a decade ago right into the lap of some contending team like Golden State or Milwaukee where he’d be insanely valuable.

Think Tobias Harris or T.J. Warren — the sort of guy who’s great on a small contract as your third or fourth option but quickly becomes overpaid and maybe overdrafted if you try to make him The Guy. Murray benefited from terrific Iowa scheme and spacing and also relied a lot on his size in the post. Without that in the NBA, I worry his athletic limitations could hold him back some, and I’m not totally convinced by the shot shot profile either.

Look, I like Keegan. I do. I just don’t love him and don’t see him as a franchise cornerstone or a guy I need to move heaven and earth to land in the top-5 as a 22-year-old tweener Tobias Harris who might be fully formed already. Shrug.

There were times this year when I got really high on Eason, and my buddy Jonathan Tjarks loves him. It’s easy to see why. Eason has one of those rare Kawhi Leonard type bodies with monster hands and wingspan, and he can be a menace defensively. He’s switchy and versatile, really active, and a natural playmaker who racked up steals and blocks.

I don’t buy the offense much, but there’s something there. Eason is big and physical and plays like a big wing, comfortable handling the ball and pulling up with an improving jumper. There’s enough offense there for what he’ll be. My problem is the athleticism. Eason lacks pop. He’s slow accelerating, and the athletic limitations held him back at both ends. Eason was big and physical in college but relied too much on that for his scoring and won’t have those advantages at the next level. Still, the defense alone looks valuable.

I never would’ve imagined Liddell would be a real prospect a year ago, let alone a clear first round guy, but he really took a big step forward this year and now he’s another one of those guys in a potential Draymond Green mold.

Liddell’s slightly smaller, but he’s a bully ball player on both ends. He’s a tough, powerful guy who plays with high energy, and the real surprising thing this year was how far his defense came. Liddell is suddenly a shot blocker and a real defensive playmaker, and he’s also developing a bit of a jump shot. He’ll never be Draymond — no one will — but looks like a capable small ball option.

Just one letter away from a slightly more famous Serbian baller, Jovic is a similarly talented passer who makes quick decisions and even runs some pick and roll. Jovic should be able to shoot, though the shot is a bit slow, but I’m not sure he’ll have any shot defensively.

He looks slow on tape and played slow in workouts, and Euro guards were treating him like a traffic cone defensively in games I watched. This is a talented dude who looked like a lottery pick a year ago, and even if it’s limited he can still play a role like new NBA champion Nemanja Bjelica.

We’re firmly back in the old PF section now, the guys stuck a bit in no man’s land positionally. Walker’s dad Samaki played in the NBA, and he’s a similarly skilled scorer with nice shooting numbers, a good dribble attack, and strong finishing. The problem is he’s too reliant on his physicality, and I’m not sure that translates. Walker is small at 6'7, a below the rim athlete that lacks speed and acceleration. He can score the rock, but it’ll be a situational type skill.

If you like guys who take charges, you’re gonna love Jaylin Williams. The dude literally took 48 charges this season alone, and he’s turned charge taking into an actual skill with his unique ability to move well laterally and get into position on D. The instincts are there, but when Williams has to actually play real defense, I’m not sure his frame will measure up. He plays with great energy and has a good feel for the game with some wing skills on offense, and I can see him getting minutes as a team defender on a smart team.

LaRavia is another guy who won big in the Combine. He has a rounded skill set, a glue guy with natural feel for the game. LaRavia is a good passer who can handle and a nice shooter especially from the corners. That sounds like 3-and-D, but LaRavia’s athletic limitations are severe. He badly lacks length and lateral quickness, so he can’t recover on defense and can’t create his own shot. I love guys with high IQ, and LaRavia really tries defensively, but I just don’t buy the body and athleticism getting him close enough to compete.

Foster has real skill in the post. He’s a skilled passer with a soft shooting touch and good feel for the game offensively. In another era, I would’ve been a lot more excited. Even now, I can see the skill popping in moments off the bench, or maybe dominating in an overseas league. The size and athleticism is the problem. I’m not sure who Foster defends, since he’s pretty thick and ground bound, and that ultimately limits what the offense can be too.

Champagnie is another guy who would’ve probably been better in another era. In this one, he just feels too stiff and slow. I can’t get over how wooden his movement is, and that’s a problem since he wants to play on the wing but is too slow to defend there. Champagnie is big and powerful with a nice shot, and I can see an occasional role, but not enough of one for me to care much.

Centers are a dime a dozen in the modern NBA. Even the good ones don’t stay on the court at the highest levels, and the average and bad ones have very little value because there’s 50 more where that came from, many of them on minimum contracts. Everyone in the NBA is big now, so size no longer reigns. Centers just aren’t that valuable — unless they also have guard and wing skills and can do everything else too. And that’s why the #1 prospect in the class is also a center…

I never, ever could’ve imagined being here one year ago when I first saw Cheat Holmgren. This dude is an absolute beanpole. He looks like, at any moment, the wrong guy will put him on a poster and dunk him into oblivion, shattering Chet into a million little pieces, never to be seen again. Holmgren doesn’t look like anything we’ve ever seen before. He doesn’t make sense.

That was my first impression, and it’s the first impression of just about anyone I’ve seen. Chet Holmgren feels impossible. But he isn’t. He’s the best prospect in the entire draft.

Imagine a 7'1 dude who backpedals and swats a shot at the rim ferociously, tips it to himself to gobble up the rebound, swiftly takes four or five long strides down the court, dribbles behind his back smoothly on a spin move, and dunks over you on the other end. Or, if he prefers, pulls up to swish a 3. That’s Chet Holmgren. And that’s not imaginary. I saw that play, several times.

Holmgren is an elite shot blocker. He protects the rim with both hands, sometimes defending two angles at once, and he’s a smart defender who typically stays out of foul trouble despite the strength limitations. Offensively, Chet is a scalable connector, a superstar glue guy. He hit 70% True Shooting as a freshman, an absurd number that came from 73% on 2s and 41% behind the arc. Holmgren is a smart passer with a comfy handle and honestly feels like he was under utilized offensively at Gonzaga.

Holmgren is a multiplier, not an additive player. He’ll be good on any team, but he’ll be GREAT on good teams. He makes everyone around him better.

He’s also been a winner at every level. The slight frame is obviously a real concern, but he’s never had any real injury history and he plays with a mean streak Anthony Davis can only dream of. It’s like if Marcus Camby could dribble and shoot too, or if Kristaps Porzingis was all the things Knicks fans once pretended he could be.

I don’t care that there’s no real comp for Chet or that he doesn’t look like a normal #1 pick or a typical superstar. Chet Holmgren is the future. I’m all in. He’s at the top of my board. You can read my full profile here.

I really love Mark Williams, to the point that he’d probably be an easy top 10 guy on my board if I valued centers more. I think Williams is a perfect drop center ready for a rotation role in the NBA.

Williams has a giant frame and is a great shot blocker, swallowing shots whole at times. He’s super strong on the glass and explosive vertically, but he also has soft touch at the rim and special control on tips and blocks. He’ll be a monster lob threat and dive man with remarkable body control at his size, and I see some surprising passing ability with latent shooting touch too.

Williams is a drop defender, and he’s a bit slow on the perimeter at times. He can also be over aggressive going for blocks, and that gets him out of position and into foul trouble. He struggles to defend in space, a half step slow and a bit more reactionary than I’d prefer. So what? He’s not going to win DPOY but most centers don’t play crunch time anymore anyway. He’ll play a lot of other valuable minutes in between.

You’d think we would’ve learned by now not to just blindly take these Adonis big men at the top of the draft like it’s still 1980, but it feels like we still get a James Wiseman type body every few years and everyone loses their minds. Meet Jalen Duren. He has an NBA-ready body and game, as long as you also have a time machine.

Duren is big and physical with brute strength that dominates the glass, and he’s an obvious lob threat that will open up the offense vertically. He has big hands and a soft touch near the rim, and the shot looks promising. I also really like the passing. The short roll decisions are good and maybe Duren would’ve done more offensively if he didn’t have such cramped spacing.

Still, I just didn’t feel Duren make his mark enough. I see very little feel for the game. He’s slow reacting and feels like he’s always out of place defensively, and I’m not sure all that physicality really gets him anywhere. Duren is in constant foul trouble, and the offense is mostly just finishing dunks against bad defense because he’s a monster physically at the college level.

If you want to believe in Duren, it’s gotta be the defense. He does move well horizontally, so that gives him some switch potential, but get outta here with the Bam Adebayo comparisons. That natural feel just isn’t there, and even when Duren does get a block, he swats it right out of bounds… which just gives the ball right back to the opponent.

Duren is super young and has all the talent and size and athleticism in the world. I don’t see it. I’ll let someone else spend years trying to develop him. Just not a guy I mind missing out on. Enjoy your worse James Wiseman.

I caught a lot of Purdue games for Ivey. That meant a ton of time watching the Boilers run their offense through Trevion Williams, and that was a delight. Trevion is a truly elite passing big man. He can run the entire offense and makes zippy passes from angles others don’t even see. He’s also got a comfortable shot and has great footwork in the post.

The size is the problem. He’s clearly a center with his foot speed and game, but at 6'8 and extremely ground bound, he has no real shot to defend guys or score over them. He’s a poor finisher in the paint because of that, and even a great wingspan doesn’t seem to help on D. But I still think he can run a bench offense for some stretches, and that’s valuable. I’d love to see him relieve Nikola Jokic for six minutes a half.

I really tried to get there on Walker Kessler. He’s an elite shot blocker at the rim, and he shoots a bunch of 3s, so I tried to convince myself he could be one of those Brook Lopez types that’s so valuable next to a Giannis or LeBron.

But Kessler is like if Brook Lopez got his feet stuck in cement. It’s hard to block shots if everyone runs right past you and you get in foul trouble trying to stop them, and the 3-pointer has a slow release with awful results. Everything about Kessler is slow, both movement and decisions, and he plays small. I get the theory but I’m out. Please not to Chicago (18) or Minnesota (19). Please.

I haven’t seen a ton of Kamagate but didn’t get the sense I needed to see more. He’s big but really thin and gets pushed around physically, and he has the sort of body that doesn’t look promising to fill out at age 21. Kamagate gets lost in space defensively a lot and looked lost in general on both ends from what I saw. There’s some real skill trying to get out. He has a decent mid-range and some nifty passing, and he’s surprisingly agile on the perimeter. Maybe there’s something there, a few years away. Would’ve been an easy first rounder in 2000. Not the sort of guy I feel bad missing out on in 2022.

Edey is a giant at 7'4, and honestly, I love watching him. He has a soft touch near the rim and could absolutely dominate in certain matchups in college — you know, the ones where the opponent had no one half a foot as tall as him. He won’t get that in the NBA, and he’s just such a slow plodder that I can’t see the foot speed holding up. Maybe he can get a Boban role.

Nzosa is one of the youngest guys in the draft, so maybe he just needs a ton of development time, but I see very little right now other than a giant dude who looks like he’s playing basketball mostly because he’s ginormous. Nzosa is exclusively a drop defender and mostly just backpedals into space, and he doesn’t have natural feel or spacing on either end. He has some touch around the rim and on short roll passes, but he’s a “two years away from being two years away” guy.

I’ve seen some boards with Koloko in the first and I don’t get it. He obviously has NBA size but he’s so wooden athletically and lacks pop, and he got roasted repeatedly on the perimeter when he tried to keep up with faster guys. I don’t see the defensive potential. Koloko is a good shot blocker, but you can’t block shots out of position, and I don’t see much offensive role either. He’s already 22 so that’s a big negative for growth potential. Maybe he gets a Bismack Biyombo type career as one of 40 other NBA rotation bigs? Yippee.

2. PF1 Jabari Smith, Auburn 3. PF2 Paolo Banchero, Duke

4. SF1 A.J. Griffin, Duke 5. PG1 Jaden Ivey, Purdue

6. SF2 Ousmane Dieng, France 7. SG1 Dyson Daniels, G League Ignite 8. SG2 Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona

9. SF3 Kendall Brown, Baylor 10. PF3 Jeremy Sochan, Baylor 11. SG3 Malaki Branham, Ohio State

12. PF4 Moussa Diabate, Michigan 13. PF5 Keegan Murray, Iowa 14. SG4 Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky

15. C2 Mark Williams, Duke 16. SG5 Johnny Davis, Wisconsin 17. SF4 Patrick Baldwin Jr., Wisconsin Milwaukee 18. SG6 TyTy Washington, Kentucky

19. PF6 Tari Eason, LSU 20. SF5 Wendell Moore, Duke 21. SF6 Jalen Williams, Santa Clara 22. SG7 Ochai Abgaji, Kansas

23. PG2 Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee 24. C3 Jalen Duren, Memphis 25. PF7 E.J. Liddell, Ohio State 26. PF8 Nikola Jovic, Serbia

27. SG5 Keon Ellis, Alabama 28. PG3 Dalen Terry, Arizona 29. SF7 MarJon Beauchamp, G League Ignite 30. SG6 Hyunjung Lee, Davidson

31. PG4 Jean Montero, Overtime Elite 32. SG7 Jaden Hardy, G League Ignite 33. SF8 Peyton Watson, UCLA 34. SF9 Caleb Houstan, Michigan 35. SF10 Josh Minott, Memphis

36. PF9 Jabari Walker, Colorado 37. SG8 Max Christie, Michigan State 38. PG5 Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga 39. SG9 Trevor Keels, Duke

40. SF11 Justin Lewis, Marquette 41. SF12 Bryce McGowans, Nebraska 42. PF10 Jaylin Williams, Arkansas 43. C4 Trevion Williams, Purdue 44. SG10 Johnny Juzang, UCLA

45. SG11 Blake Wesley, Notre Dame 46. C5 Walker Kessler, Auburn 47. PF11 Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest 48. PF12 Michael Foster, G League Ignite 49. SG12 Christian Braun, Kansas 50. C6 Ismael Kamagate, DRC ■

COME BACK LATER FOR MORE RANKINGS!

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Board for Sports Activities, IITD

Board For Sports Activites (BSA), IIT Delhi

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